Events in the sub-continent over the last three weeks have caused tectonic shifts in the WTC points table. South Africa and New Zealand have made strong pushes for a finals spot following their whitewashes in Bangladesh and India respectively. India, who were sitting comfortably with a marked distance from the rest after the 2-0 win over Bangladesh, have now been displaced from the top spot by Australia. With seven series left to be played in this cycle, five teams still have their fate in their own hands (well, almost) which makes it the most closely contested WTC cycle in the three iterations. Here’s how things stand for the five top teams in contention.
WTC 2023-25 Standings after the Mumbai Test

India
Series left: 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)
India have ceded a lot of the ground following a historic 0-3 drubbing at the hands of New Zealand and to not depend on other results, they would need to win by a margin of 5-0 or 4-0 in Australia and get their PCT above 65% which can only be topped by either of South Africa or Sri Lanka. Even if they win by a margin of 4-1 and get to 64.1%, they could still be pipped by either of South Africa (69.4%) or Sri Lanka (69.2%) and New Zealand (64.3%) should those teams win all their remaining Tests. If India lose by a 2-3 scoreline Down Under, they will still be pipped by Australia even if Pat Cummins’s team subsequently lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka and most likely by at least one of South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand.
South Africa
Series left: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)
Having spent the first half of the cycle in the lower rungs of the table, South Africa have sprung to life following their thumping 2-0 win in Bangladesh. They have four Tests in hand – all at home – and winning all four guarantees a spot in the final with 69.4% as only Australia can then catch them up on points. Three wins in four will also will help them to finish with 61%, which gives them more than a fair chance, but they will need other teams in contention to drop points.
New Zealand
Series left: 3 Tests vs England (home)
The inaugural WTC champions New Zealand did not have the finals spot in their sights after the 2-0 drubbing in Sri Lanka but the remarkable 3-0 win in India has given them a second lease of life. They can still lose out even if they get the better of England 3-0, as one of South Africa or Sri Lanka and either of Australia or India can still go past their maximum achievable PCT of 64.3%. Should the South Africa-Sri Lanka series end in a 1-1 stalemate, neither can surpass New Zealand’s maximum PCT of 64.3% and only one among India or Australia can which is enough for New Zealand to guarantee a ticket to Lord’s. If New Zealand fail to maximize points against England, their PCT will fall under 60% and would need multiple other results come their favour.
Australia
Series left: 5 Tests vs India (home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)
Australia, who have been cooling their heels since playing their last Test in mid March, have leapt to the top of the table courtesy India’s three defeats on the bounce. If they win at least five of the seven remaining games, they will have a good chance to defend their title at Lord’s next year. They have series scheduled against two teams that sit right below them in the table and victories against them will shave off points from their direct competitors’ tally and advance their cause. A 4-0 win against India followed by a 0-2 defeat to Sri Lanka could prove futile for Australia as both New Zealand (64.3% if they beat England 3-0) and Sri Lanka (69.2%, if they beat South Africa 2-0) can surpass the defending champions’ 62.3%.
Sri Lanka
Series left: 2 Tests vs South Africa (away); 2 Tests vs Australia (home)
Sri Lanka have climbed the charts with three back to back wins against England and New Zealand and have four matches to play. Wins in all four will take them to 69.2% PCT which can only be surpassed if India win Border Gavaskar Trophy five Tests to nil. Three wins in four will also help them finish with 61% which gives them a fair chance, but they will need other teams in contention to drop points..

By IPL Agent

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