The past three weeks have brought about significant changes in the World Test Championship (WTC) points table, with South Africa and New Zealand making significant strides towards securing their spots in the finals. These developments came after their commanding performances against Bangladesh and India, respectively. India’s once-comfortable position, following a 2-0 victory over Bangladesh, has been shaken as Australia leapfrogged them to claim the top spot. With seven series remaining in this cycle and five teams still in contention, this WTC cycle is shaping up to be the most fiercely contested of the three iterations. Below is the current status of the top five teams vying for a place in the final.
Starting with India, they have an uphill task ahead, with a crucial away series against Australia consisting of five Tests. After a disheartening 0-3 loss to New Zealand, India must secure a convincing series win in Australia. A 5-0 or 4-0 victory is essential to boost their Points Percentage (PCT) above 65%, a threshold that only South Africa or Sri Lanka can potentially surpass. Even a 4-1 series win would leave India vulnerable to being overtaken by South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand, should these teams triumph in all their remaining fixtures. A 2-3 defeat against Australia would be a significant setback, likely allowing Australia to clinch a spot in the final, even if they stumble in Sri Lanka. In such a scenario, either South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand would likely outperform India in the standings.
South Africa has experienced a resurgence, emerging from the lower half of the table after a comprehensive 2-0 victory in Bangladesh. They now have four home Tests remaining, two against Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan. Securing victories in all four matches would guarantee South Africa a place in the finals, with a PCT of 69.4%, only challengeable by Australia. Even three wins out of these four matches, resulting in a 61% PCT, would keep them in a favorable position, assuming other teams falter in their upcoming matches.
Turning to New Zealand, the inaugural WTC champions have rediscovered their form following a remarkable 3-0 triumph in India, positioning them back in the race. Yet, their path remains precarious.
. Even if New Zealand achieves a 3-0 victory over England, they could still fall short if South Africa or Sri Lanka, and either Australia or India, outperform their maximum attainable PCT of 64.3%. In a scenario where the series between South Africa and Sri Lanka ends in a 1-1 draw, neither team could surpass New Zealand’s PCT, leaving only one of either India or Australia capable of doing so. Any failure to capitalize on points against England would sink New Zealand’s PCT below 60%, necessitating favorable outcomes in other matches to secure their position.
Australia, currently at the pinnacle of the standings, have capitalized on India’s recent setbacks. With a total of seven tests ahead – five against India and two against Sri Lanka, Australia is in a favorable position to defend their title at Lord’s. Winning at least five of these matches would significantly bolster their chances. However, they face challenges against teams immediately beneath them in the rankings. A 4-0 series win over India followed by a loss to Sri Lanka could leave them vulnerable, as both New Zealand (with a possible 64.3% if they overcome England 3-0) and Sri Lanka (achieving 69.2% by defeating South Africa 2-0) could surpass Australia’s 62.3% PCT.
Lastly, Sri Lanka has gained momentum with successive victories against England and New Zealand. With four upcoming matches, two against South Africa and two more against Australia, cleanly winning all will significantly elevate their PCT to 69.2%, challenging the standings of other contenders. Even securing three wins would position them at a 61% PCT, provided competing teams drop points. This unfolding competition, with teams jostling for supremacy, is setting the stage for what promises to be an electrifying contest.