In a remarkable turn of events, New Zealand’s 113-run victory in the second Test match held in Pune has marked a significant milestone in the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle. This win not only secured their first-ever Test series triumph on Indian soil but also stirred the pot in the fierce race for the top two slots in the championship standings. While India continues to hold a slender lead at the summit, the competition is heating up as New Zealand’s impressive back-to-back victories, combined with South Africa’s decisive seven-wicket win against Bangladesh earlier this week, have left five formidable teams vying for a coveted place in the final showdown.
Amidst this heated contest, Pakistan’s resilient performance against England has added an interesting twist. Their come-from-behind 2-1 series win has offered them a slim, albeit unlikely, chance to make it to the grand finale at the iconic Lord’s Cricket Ground. Meanwhile, West Indies, England, and Bangladesh have been knocked out of the running, simplifying the competition numbers but not the complexity.
**WTC Standings Post New Zealand’s Pune Victory**
**India**
India remains in the pole position, but their lead is anything but secure. With six matches left in this cycle—a solitary Test against New Zealand at home and five tantalizing contests against Australia on their turf—India’s path to the final is relatively straightforward. Winning at least four of these encounters would solidify their standing in the final, ideally secured by clinching victory in the imminent Test in Mumbai. This result would propel them to a PCT (Points Percentage) of 64.03%, a figure that only South Africa or Sri Lanka could surpass in the current scenario. Interestingly, despite the expectation of competitive clashes, draws are a rarity, with only three draws out of 49 Tests occurring in this WTC cycle, all due to rain-interruptions.
In a more precarious scenario where India only manages a 3-3 standing in their remaining matches, their PCT would drop to 58.77%, leaving them vulnerable. Such a scenario would allow their rivals—Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and New Zealand—to surpass them and perhaps jeopardize India’s standing at the apex.
**New Zealand**
Riding high after dethroning South Africa in the standings thanks to their win in Pune, New Zealand’s remaining fixtures include a Test in India and a three-match series against England at home. Securing a flawless 4-0 record in these games would boost New Zealand to a PCT of 64.29%, although even this might not suffice as it could be exceeded by two of the current top contenders. For New Zealand to seal a top-two position, they require favorable outcomes in the South Africa vs Sri Lanka series, with an ideal scenario involving a clean sweep either way and additional losses from the victor in their remaining clashes. Winning three games would bring them to a PCT of 57.14%, keeping their hopes alive if aligned with certain fortuitous results in other matches.
**South Africa**
South Africa, currently sitting at fifth with a PCT of 47.
.61%, sees a clear, albeit difficult, route to the top-two. Triumphing in all five of their remaining Tests would secure them a PCT of 69.44%, assuring a top-two finish. A near-perfect record of four out of five victories would yield a PCT of 61.11%, placing them in strong contention depending on the outcomes involving India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
**Sri Lanka**
Sri Lanka’s resurgence, marked by wins in their last three matches, keeps their qualification dreams alive. Extending this streak with victories in all seven remaining Tests would result in a PCT of 69.23%, making it an aspirational target that could only be surpassed by India or Australia. A tally of three wins would elevate them to 61.53%, where they would hope for New Zealand to falter in at least one game, rendering the Border-Gavaskar series results inconsequential. A 1-1 draw between South Africa and Sri Lanka, with subsequent wins, would see them edge out South Africa marginally on PCT.
**Australia**
Australia, following their commanding sweep over New Zealand earlier this year, must navigate through critical series against the top-seeded India and formidable Sri Lanka. Achieving five victories out of the seven matches would propel them to a PCT of 65.79%, securing their place in the final. Four wins would see them poised precariously at 60.52%, with their fate potentially hinging on outcomes favoring India, Sri Lanka, or South Africa. Any less optimal results would necessitate a dependence on the might of other competing teams.
**Pakistan**
Pakistan’s dramatic series turnaround against England might find itself as a narrative of what-ifs unless several impressive victories align favorably. Winning all four of their remaining matches would position them at a PCT of 52.38, still demanding that other squads face losses or inclement weather stymies proceedings with draws to further their prospects.
Indeed, these calculations are premised on teams avoiding penalties for slow over-rates, a nuance that might play a significant role in the final composition of the standings. As the contest inches closer to its decisive conclusion, each team now jostles to control its destiny, setting the stage for a riveting finish in the World Test Championship.