In a thrilling display of cricket prowess, New Zealand secured a historic 113-run victory over India in the second Test at Pune, clinching their first-ever series win on Indian soil. This landmark achievement has set the stage for an intensified race to finish among the top two positions in the ongoing 2023-25 ICC World Test Championship (WTC) cycle.
The current standings see India clinging to the coveted top spot in the table, but with a slender lead over their arch-rival, Australia. As the WTC progresses, India’s fate remains firmly within their grasp. However, the challenges are intensifying as New Zealand’s consecutive triumphs, combined with South Africa’s recent seven-wicket victory over Bangladesh, have left five teams fiercely vying for a place in the final.
In a dramatic twist, Pakistan managed to defeat England in their series by a remarkable 2-1 margin, granting them an outside chance of featuring in the ultimate showdown at the iconic Lord’s Cricket Ground. Conversely, West Indies, England, and Bangladesh have been effectively eliminated from the race, narrowing the field of contenders.
Analyzing the WTC standings after New Zealand’s triumph in Pune:
India remains at the helm, with a crucial Test left against New Zealand at home and a daunting five-match series against Australia on Australian soil. The equation for India to securely book their spot in the final is straightforward: they must win at least four out of these six remaining Tests, with the ideal scenario being a victory in the upcoming Test in Mumbai. Achieving a Percentage of Points (PCT) of 64.03% will ensure their march into the final, a figure only surpassable by South Africa or Sri Lanka at this juncture. However, if India can prevail in the Mumbai Test and manage any margin of victory in the Border-Gavaskar series over Australia, their chances brighten significantly. It’s noteworthy that the WTC cycle has seen very few draws, with only three of the 49 Tests ending in stalemates, largely due to weather interruptions.
On the other hand, if India were to split their next six matches evenly at 3-3, their PCT would fall to 58.77%, allowing Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and New Zealand to potentially overtake them, thus putting India in a perilous position.
New Zealand, invigorated by their recent victory, have one remaining Test against India at home and a three-match home series against England. To maintain their climb, New Zealand aims for a flawless 4-0 run, which would elevate their PCT to 64.29%. Even so, this figure could be bettered by two of the other four teams competing for the final spots. For New Zealand to secure a top-two finish, they would benefit if the South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series results in a clean sweep in either direction, with the victor losing at least one other match, allowing New Zealand to advance alongside India or Australia. With three wins, their PCT would stand at 57.14%, leaving room for maneuver should other results fall in their favour.
South Africa stands at fifth in the rankings with a PCT of 47.61%.
. Should they manage to win all five of their remaining Tests against Bangladesh away, and Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home, their PCT would soar to 69.44%, securing a top-two finish. Achieving four wins would result in a PCT of 61.11%, giving them a solid chance contingent on outcomes involving India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka’s late resurgence – winning their last three Tests – has placed them effectively in contention. Extending their winning streak to seven would put their PCT at 69.23%, potentially only surpassable by India or Australia. Three victories would yield a PCT of 61.53%, relying on New Zealand to drop one of their matches, thus sidelining the importance of the Border-Gavaskar series outcome. A 1-1 draw in the South Africa vs. Sri Lanka series, and both teams winning their other games, sees Sri Lanka narrowly edging out South Africa on PCT (61.53% vs 61.11%).
Australia, absent from Test cricket since sweeping New Zealand 2-0, face a demanding slate with five Tests against India and two against Sri Lanka. Securing five victories out of these seven matches would propel their PCT to 65.79%, securing their place in the final. Achieving four wins results in a 60.52% PCT, precariously placing them as this could be usurped by India, Sri Lanka, and South Africa.
Pakistan, basking in their recent series comeback against England, faces an uphill task. Winning all four of their remaining Tests against South Africa and the West Indies would bring their PCT to 52.38%. However, this outcome is contingent upon a series of specific results and possible draws depriving multiple teams of crucial points.
These calculations operate under the assumption that teams do not incur penalties for slow over-rates, a factor that could significantly influence the final WTC standings. As the teams gear up for the upcoming matches, cricket fans worldwide are eagerly anticipating a thrilling conclusion to this WTC cycle.