In a thrilling crescendo to the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle, New Zealand has escalated the stakes by securing a historic 113-run victory in the second Test held in Pune, marking their first-ever series win on Indian soil. This pivotal triumph has intensified the battle for a top-two finish in the current WTC standings, thrusting several teams into a heated competition.
Despite holding their ground at the top of the table, India finds itself in a precarious position, narrowly leading Australia. With the series victory, New Zealand has demonstrated remarkable resilience, climbing the rankings and creating a competitive bottleneck that has left five teams with a tangible chance at qualifying for the esteemed final. Meanwhile, South Africa’s decisive seven-wicket win over Bangladesh earlier this week has further muddied the waters, ensuring a thrilling race to the finish line.
Adding another layer of intrigue to the proceedings, Pakistan has orchestrated a stunning comeback with a 2-1 series victory against England. While their hopes of reaching the finale at Lord’s remain slim, the possibility is not out of reach. In contrast, West Indies, England, and Bangladesh have been officially ousted from the championship race, leaving the spotlight focused on the remaining contenders.
The latest WTC standings post-New Zealand’s Pune triumph paint a vivid picture of possible paths to the final. India, eagerly defending their coveted top spot, has just one Test left against New Zealand (home) and five critical Tests against Australia (away). To secure their place in the final without depending on the outcomes of other matches, India must clinch victory in at least four of these six remaining Tests. Ideally, success in the forthcoming Test in Mumbai is crucial to maintaining a Percentage of Points (PCT) of 64.03%, which, at this juncture, can be bested only by South Africa or Sri Lanka. A win in Mumbai combined with any margin of victory in the five-match Border-Gavaskar series will keep India in the game, as long as the South Africa vs Sri Lanka series doesn’t end in a 1-1 draw. However, with only three out of the 49 Tests in this WTC cycle ending in draws due to rain, India risks a precarious finish if they go 3-3, opening the door for Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, and New Zealand to surpass them.
In contrast, New Zealand’s resounding resurgence after a setback in Sri Lanka has propelled them past South Africa in the rankings. If they manage a flawless 4-0 run in their remaining matches—including the thrilling encounter against India—they will reach a PCT of 64.29%. Still, this feat may not suffice unless the South Africa vs Sri Lanka series results in a clean sweep with the victor conceding at least one other match, thereby paving the way for New Zealand to advance alongside India or Australia.
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South Africa’s journey to the WTC final is less straightforward. Positioned fifth with a PCT of 47.61%, they must strive for victory in all five remaining Tests to secure a 69.44% PCT, ensuring a top-two finish. Winning four out of five will result in a PCT of 61.11%, which could still be sufficient depending on results involving India, Australia, and Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka, buoyed by a remarkable comeback with three consecutive wins, needs the momentum to persist through seven consecutive victories to reach a PCT of 69.23%, a tally only India and Australia could surpass. Winning three would yield a 61.53% PCT, provided New Zealand falters in at least one of their remaining contests.
Meanwhile, Australia stakes their claim with a series against table-topping India and third-ranked Sri Lanka. Emerging victorious in five of these seven encounters will push their PCT to 65.79%, securing a spot in the grand finale. Achieving four wins puts them at 60.52%—a tenuous standing that demands favorable outcomes from other matches.
For Pakistan, having mounted a stellar comeback, their destiny hinges on winning all four of their remaining Tests. This would translate to a PCT of 52.38%, albeit contingent on a string of favorable scenarios, including several drawn matches to restrain rival progression.
Lastly, amid an electrifying WTC cycle, a critical aspect remains: ensuring teams don’t incur penalties for slow over-rates, a factor that could significantly influence final standings and shape the destiny of these cricketing titans.