Over the past three weeks, the cricketing landscape in the sub-continent has been dramatically reshaped, causing significant changes in the World Test Championship (WTC) points table. South Africa and New Zealand have emerged as strong contenders for a spot in the finals, following their series sweeps against Bangladesh and India, respectively. India, who appeared to be securely positioned at the top after a 2-0 series win over Bangladesh, now find themselves dislodged from the leading position by Australia. With seven series still to unfold in this WTC cycle, the contest has intensified, with five teams still in control of their destinies, thereby making this the most fiercely disputed WTC cycle in its three editions. Here’s an in-depth look at where the top five teams currently stand as they vie for a place in the WTC final.
Starting with India, the series left in their schedule is crucial: five Tests against Australia on Australian soil. Following an unexpected 0-3 defeat at the hands of New Zealand, India finds themselves needing a resounding victory in Australia to secure a top spot without relying on the fortunes of other teams. To ensure their place, they must win the series with a 5-0 or 4-0 margin, which would propel their percentage of possible points (PCT) above the 65% mark—a tally that only South Africa or Sri Lanka might surpass. Even with a 4-1 victory, which would adjust their PCT to 64.1%, they could still be surpassed by South Africa (69.4%), Sri Lanka (69.2%), or New Zealand (64.3%) should these teams win all their remaining matches. A narrow 2-3 series loss in Australia would prevent India from staying ahead of Australia, even if the latter loses 0-2 in Sri Lanka, and would likely see India overtaken by at least one of South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand.
Turning to South Africa, they have two series remaining: two Tests each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, both to be held at home. They have made a remarkable comeback, having lingered in the lower half of the standings until their dominant 2-0 win over Bangladesh. South Africa has four home Tests left; winning all guarantees them a place in the final with a PCT of 69.4%, a position only rivaled by Australia. Even if they secure three wins from these four Tests, bringing their PCT to 61%, they would still stand a solid chance, depending on other teams failing to maximize their points.
New Zealand, the inaugural WTC champions, have recovered from a disheartening 2-0 series loss in Sri Lanka to once again aim for the finals after achieving an outstanding 3-0 victory over India.
. They are set to face England in three Tests at home. Achieving a 3-0 victory here would give them a final PCT of 64.3%. However, this might not suffice if South Africa or Sri Lanka secure wins in their remaining fixtures, or if either Australia or India surpass their potential points total. Yet, if the South Africa-Sri Lanka series ends in a 1-1 stalemate, neither can overtake New Zealand’s PCT, allowing only either India or Australia to threaten their position, potentially ensuring New Zealand’s passage to the final at Lord’s.
Australia, on the other hand, finds itself back at the summit of the WTC table, capitalizing on India’s consecutive defeats. They have a packed schedule with seven matches left—five at home against India and two away versus Sri Lanka. If they win at least five of these games, they stand a solid chance to advance to the final. Victory in these crucial fixtures has dual benefits: helping them collect points while diminishing the tally for direct rivals like India and Sri Lanka. However, winning 4-0 against India and subsequently losing 0-2 to Sri Lanka might not suffice, as New Zealand could then outstrip them with a 64.3% PCT if they clinch all games against England, while Sri Lanka might achieve a superior 69.2% by defeating South Africa 2-0.
Finally, Sri Lanka, having claimed three consecutive wins over England and New Zealand, stands poised to challenge for a finals berth. With four matches on their calendar—two each against South Africa and Australia—victories in all would boost their PCT to an impressive 69.2%. This figure could only be exceeded if India manages to clean sweep the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series 5-0. Winning three of their four matches would result in a 61% PCT, leaving them reliant on other contenders to drop points elsewhere to maintain their aspirations.
As the cycle proceeds, the dynamics of these fixtures promise to bring high drama and nail-biting finishes, underlining the fierce competition for a place in the WTC final. With each team strategically plotting their path to the ultimate showdown, cricket fans globally are in for an enthralling conclusion to this chapter of the World Test Championship.