Events across the cricketing subcontinent in recent weeks have sparked significant changes in the World Test Championship (WTC) points table. South Africa and New Zealand have made dramatic strides toward securing a spot in the finals after their compelling series wins against Bangladesh and India, respectively. India, which appeared to be comfortably ahead following a confident 2-0 victory over Bangladesh, has now been surpassed by Australia in the rankings. With seven series yet to conclude in this WTC cycle, five teams remain in a fierce contest, each controlling its own destiny to varying degrees. This development marks the closest and most competitive WTC cycle among the three that have taken place so far. Let’s examine the position of each of the five top teams actively competing for a place in the finals.
WTC 2023-25 Standings Following the Mumbai Test
India:
Number of Series Left: 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)
India has experienced a significant setback after an unprecedented 0-3 defeat to New Zealand. To guarantee their place without relying on other results, India must secure a series victory against Australia with a margin of either 5-0 or 4-0, raising their Points Percentage (PCT) above 65%. This would surpass the achievable PCT of either South Africa or Sri Lanka. Even with a 4-1 victory bringing them to 64.1%, India could be overtaken by South Africa (69.4%), Sri Lanka (69.2%), or New Zealand (64.3%) if these teams win all their remaining matches. A loss against Australia by 2-3 would mean India would still trail behind Australia, even if Pat Cummins’ team loses 0-2 in Sri Lanka, and likely fall behind at least one of South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand.
South Africa:
Number of Series Left: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)
After spending the first part of the cycle near the bottom of the table, South Africa has roared back into contention following a decisive 2-0 triumph in Bangladesh. With four remaining Tests, all on home soil, winning all four would secure them a finals spot with a 69.4% PCT. Only Australia could potentially catch them on points.
. A record of three wins from four would also give them 61%, a competitive PCT that would require other contending teams to lose points.
New Zealand:
Number of Series Left: 3 Tests vs England (home)
The inaugural champions, New Zealand, looked unlikely to secure a finals spot following a 2-0 defeat in Sri Lanka but have revived their hopes with a spectacular 3-0 series win in India. Even a 3-0 series win against England might not suffice for a finals berth since either South Africa or Sri Lanka, along with either Australia or India, could still surpass their best possible PCT of 64.3%. However, if the South Africa-Sri Lanka series ends in a 1-1 stalemate, neither could overtake New Zealand, leaving one of India or Australia as their only potential nemesis for securing their place at Lord’s. A failure to maximize points against England would see New Zealand’s PCT drop below 60%, demanding several favorable outcomes from other matches.
Australia:
Number of Series Left: 5 Tests vs India (home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)
Australia, which hasn’t played since mid-March, has jumped to the top of the table due to India’s trio of losses. Winning at least five of their final seven games could solidify their position to defend their title at Lord’s next year. Facing two proximate rivals in the table, triumphs against them could diminish their opponents’ points and boost Australia’s cause. However, a potential scenario of a 4-0 win over India, followed by a 0-2 series defeat against Sri Lanka, could be fruitless for Australia. This would potentially allow New Zealand (should they sweep England 3-0) with a PCT of 64.3% and Sri Lanka (69.2% if victorious 2-0 against South Africa) to outstrip Australia’s maximum 62.3%.
Sri Lanka:
Number of Series Left: 2 Tests vs South Africa (away); 2 Tests vs Australia (home)
Sri Lanka is riding high after a streak of three consecutive victories against England and New Zealand and faces four crucial upcoming matches. Securing wins in all four matches would elevate them to a 69.2% PCT, a figure only matchable by an Indian team victorious in the Border-Gavaskar Series by 5-0. A record of three wins out of four matches would position Sri Lanka with a 61% PCT, leaving them in contention but reliant on other teams to falter.
As the contest for the WTC finals intensifies, the cricketing world watches closely, with each match revealing new favorites and underdogs, shaping the landscape of a thrilling cycle.